Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 29 2022 - 00Z Sat Nov 05 2022

Guidance agrees upon trade flow through the period but with a
notable change in strength next week.  Expect light to moderate
winds late this week into early next week with high pressure
staying well north-northwest of the state and an upper low over
and then east/northeast of the main islands helping to weaken the
pressure gradient.  Stronger high pressure settling into the
east-central Pacific should bring winds up toward more brisk
levels during the mid-late part of next week.  The aforementioned
upper low may locally enhance showers late this week into the
weekend.  After a brief drier period around Sunday-Monday,
precipitable water values may increase from the east as the trades
incorporate moisture initially lifted northward to the east of the
upper low.  Guidance disagrees on the magnitude of increased
moisture though, with the 00Z GFS generally showing higher PWATs
than the 00Z ECMWF or 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF means.  Thus for now
anticipate some increase in rainfall from windward-focused showers
(occasionally straying to other locations) after Monday but to a
lesser degree than forecast by the GFS.

Rausch