Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 30 2022 - 00Z Sun Nov 06 2022

The latest models and ensemble means agree upon varying strength
of trade flow through the period, favoring a windward/mountain
focus for showers that could occasionally stray to other
locations.  Consensus shows generally moderate winds from now into
early next week as an upper low to the northeast of the state
weakens the pressure gradient to the south of mid-latitude high
pressure.  Then expect trades to become more brisk mid-late week
as a stronger surface high settles over the east-central Pacific. 
Winds could slacken a bit by Friday or Saturday as the high
weakens.  

Guidance still suggests a period of lower precipitable water
values early next week, though with the 00Z ECMWF bringing
somewhat more moisture into the Big Island than the 00Z GFS/GEFS
mean and 12Z ECMWF mean.  There is still a decent signal for the
trades to bring an area of moisture to the islands by the latter
half of the week.  GFS trends over the past day toward somewhat
lower precipitable water values have yielded better agreement in
principle.  The combination of this moisture along with a
potential modest upper weakness should increase rainfall amounts
to some degree versus earlier in the week.

Rausch