Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Nov 02 2022 - 00Z Wed Nov 09 2022

Expect moderate trades to extend into Wednesday when guidance
consensus shows a weak surface trough passing by just to the north
of the islands.  Winds should be more brisk by Thursday-Friday as
the surface high settling over the east-central Pacific reaches
its peak strength.  Guidance still shows some weakening of the
trades during the weekend into early next week as the surface high
weakens and a front approaches from the west.  From late this week
through next Tuesday this background flow will likely be
east-southeasterly on average.  There is still some spread for
exactly how close to the islands the western front reaches early
next week.  However most guidance has generally trended weaker
with the supporting upper trough, which suggests leaning away from
the eastern side of the envelope.

Mostly windward/mountain-focused showers should be lightest
through about Wednesday with guidance showing modestly below
average precipitable water values over most of the state.  With
some continued differences in specifics, there is a consistent
signal for a band of moisture to cross the state from east to west
late this week.  This moisture along with an upper level weakness
over/near the state (possibly containing one or more weak lows)
will likely support higher rainfall totals at that time.  The
trends toward a weaker upper trough approaching from the west
during the weekend and early next week have led the average of
guidance to become more stable with moisture levels during that
period (versus rebounding) but there is still a fair degree of
spread for the actual precipitable water values, with no clear
clustering at the moment.  Regardless of how much moisture there
is, eastward/southeastward facing terrain should continue to see
the best shower focus through Tuesday with some activity straying
to other locations where background flow is locally lighter.

Rausch