Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 AM EDT Wed Nov 02 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Nov 03 2022 - 00Z Thu Nov 10 2022

Today's guidance maintains trades with some variation in strength
over the course of the period.  Winds should strengthen some late
this week as high pressure to the northeast reaches its highest
central pressure, and then weaken slightly as the high weakens. 
Another high dropping into its place will likely maintain similar
speeds into the first part of next week followed by another
potential step down in wind speeds toward midweek.  Orientation of
the trades may turn east-southeasterly or perhaps briefly
southeasterly during the late week into weekend time frame.  A
band of moisture crossing the region and a weak upper low
retrograding just to the north may enhance the primarily
windward/mountain showers late this week into the weekend as well.
 Some of the moisture may persist into the early part of next week.

After becoming less of a factor 24 hours ago, energy in the
southern part of a shortwave trough coming into the picture from
the west during the weekend has become a more prominent source of
forecast uncertainty once again.  The 00Z CMC is a strong extreme
with this feature and actually brings it into the western islands
next Wednesday.  The 00Z ECMWF is weaker but still brings it close
to the western islands, helping to pull up moisture from the south
into midweek.  In contrast, the 00Z GFS ultimately holds it
farther west and splits it, with flow around an upper low just to
the northeast of the state pulling in drier air from the north. 
Not surprisingly the GEFS mean leans toward the drier GFS and the
ECMWF mean is a somewhat less pronounced version of the
operational run.  Given the small/low-predictability nature of the
upper features and full ensemble spread, would recommend an
intermediate solution while awaiting more confident
trends/clustering.

Rausch