Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 AM EDT Thu Nov 03 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Nov 04 2022 - 00Z Fri Nov 11 2022

The overwhelming majority of guidance agrees upon varying degrees
of trade flow through the period.  Strongest winds should be late
this week, corresponding to the peak strength of high pressure
northeast of the state.  Then a high dropping in from the north to
replace it will be somewhat weaker and yet another high may pass
by well north of the islands by Wednesday-Thursday.  Consensus
suggests that trades may have an east-southeasterly or
southeasterly orientation late this week, followed by a return to
a more easterly direction for the rest of the period.  The 00Z CMC
is a notable extreme (not supported by its mean) in having
stronger upper energy disrupt the trades Wednesday-Thursday. 
Generally windward/mountain-focused showers could see some
enhancement with the area of moisture slowly passing through late
this week into the weekend.  As has been the case in recent days,
forecasts for next week diverge for moisture levels due to
differences in handling the shortwave energy moving in from the
west and other aspects of nearby upper flow.  At least the ECMWF
has toned down the northward surge of moisture seen 24 hours ago. 
Still, the ECMWF/ECMWF mean again depict higher precipitable water
values than the GFS/GEFS mean with predictability looking fairly
low.  Thus would recommend maintaining a compromise approach until
a more confident alternative arises.

Rausch