Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Nov 10 2022 - 00Z Thu Nov 17 2022

Easterly trade winds over Hawaii today will shift more northerly
and strengthen by Friday and last through the weekend as a couple
of regions of high pressure pass to the north and a low pressure
system lingers to the northeast. Once the area of low pressure
weakens, trades should also weaken again with a more easterly
component. This generally looks to maintain itself through at
least the middle of next week. Overall, this pattern would
continue to support mainly windward/mountain-focused showers along
the eastern facing terrain amidst a rather dry regime over Hawaii.
The models generally agree on this overall pattern for the next
week, with some lingering questions in the details. There are some
greater differences amongst the deterministic guidance around
Tuesday-Wednesday next week with an upper low poised to take shape
over the north-central Pacific and how close this may get to
Hawaii. The ensemble means show better agreement that this low
should stay well north without any impacts to Hawaii and is the
preferred solution at this point.

Santorelli