Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Nov 19 2022 - 00Z Sat Nov 26 2022

Showers and thunderstorms are causing flash flooding in the near
term across Maui and Molokai as a trough aloft creates instability
while weak winds focusing along a surface trough mean the storms
are not moving much. Through Friday though, the upper and surface
troughs look to shift east of the state, which will allow for
trade winds to build in and lessen the flooding threat. In fact,
easterly trades are likely to strengthen considerably through
early next week as a surface high pressure system strengthens just
to the north of the state. An upper high should also influence at
least the western part of Hawaii, lessening instability while
moisture levels are about normal to below normal, for a generally
drier pattern through the first half of next week. But by around
Thanksgiving Day, model guidance is showing a cold front may pass
across at least the western islands of Hawaii. This could provide
a focus for moisture and thus showers and possibly thunderstorms
with an upper trough coming in late next week. The details of the
timing of this front and how far south it might press will
continue to be monitored.

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