Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 AM EST Sat Nov 19 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Nov 20 2022 - 00Z Sun Nov 27 2022

Relatively quiet weather looks to set up across Hawaii this
weekend into early next week as an upper ridge stretches across at
least the western islands, lessening instability while lower than
normal moisture levels are also in place. At the surface, a high
will strengthen just north of Hawaii and serve to increase
easterly trades to breezy and locally strong levels through early
next week. Thus any showers that do form should focus across
windward and mountain areas. Then model guidance is still
indicating that a cold front could pass through at least the
western islands of Hawaii around Thanksgiving Day or perhaps
Friday. This could provide a focus for moisture and thus showers
and possibly thunderstorms with an upper trough coming in late
next week. The details of the timing of this front, how far south
it might press, and how long it might stall will continue to be
monitored, as model differences still remain with these aspects of
the forecast.

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