Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 AM EST Sun Nov 20 2022

Valid 00Z Mon Nov 21 2022 - 00Z Mon Nov 28 2022

Relatively quiet weather looks to set up across Hawaii for the
first half of the week as an upper ridge stretches across the
western islands, lessening instability while lower than normal
moisture levels are also in place. At the surface, a high just
north of Hawaii will promote easterly trades at breezy to locally
strong levels through at least Monday, with some minor decrease in
wind amplitude by Tuesday-Wednesday. Given this wind pattern, any
showers that do form should focus across windward and mountain
areas. Then model guidance is still indicating that a cold front
is likely to pass across the state around Thanksgiving Day, which
could provide a focus for moisture and thus showers and possibly
thunderstorms with an upper trough coming in late next week.
Additionally, strong northeasterly winds are likely behind the
front. Recent models actually show the front pushing across the
entire state with a drier and windy pattern behind it for late
this week. Gradual weakening of the winds and gradual moistening
of the atmosphere are possible by early next week as the front
washes out.

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