Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Nov 24 2022 - 00Z Thu Dec 01 2022

A relatively calm day is forecast across Hawaii Wednesday with
light to moderate trade winds, ahead of an approaching cold front
expected to move southward through the islands Wednesday night
into Thanksgiving Day. A brief band of showers could accompany the
cold front as moisture increases temporarily ahead of the front,
with clearing behind yielding a dry pattern. Northeasterly to
northerly winds are likely to be notably strong and gusty behind
the front with temperatures cooling a bit. The front is forecast
to weaken and diminish south of Hawaii this weekend, while the
upper trough pushing the front through the state closes off a low
to the northeast of Hawaii, while a surface low stalls northeast
as well. These features are positioned such that winds over Hawaii
should weaken considerably and promote a land/sea breeze pattern
over the weekend. Winds are forecast to gradually restrengthen for
the early part of next week and may take on a southerly component
given a weak upper trough just west of the state. Models are
fairly agreeable that this could draw moisture northward from the
ITCZ for a wetter pattern around Monday-Wednesday, with moisture
levels (precipitable water anomalies) above the 90th percentile
per the GFS/ECMWF and their ensemble means. Models even have hints
of a tropical low tracking west of the state by that time, but
particularly the GFS model, which tends to be aggressive with
forming tropical systems.

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