Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 AM EST Thu Nov 24 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Nov 25 2022 - 00Z Fri Dec 02 2022

Expect a windy Thanksgiving Day across Hawaii today as a cold
front currently nearing the state (as of early Thursday morning)
passes across all islands. A brief band of showers could accompany
the cold front as moisture increases temporarily ahead of the
front, with clearing behind yielding a dry pattern. Northeasterly
to northerly winds are likely to be notably strong and gusty
behind the front along with temperatures cooling a bit. The front
is forecast to stall south of Hawaii this weekend, while the upper
trough pushing the front through the state closes off a low to the
northeast of Hawaii, as a surface low stalls northeast as well. A
surface ridge behind these features is likely to edge into the
western islands, causing winds to weaken considerably and promote
a land/sea breeze pattern over the weekend. Winds are forecast to
gradually restrengthen for the early part of next week and take on
a southerly component given a weak upper trough just west of the
state. The same front from Thanksgiving may actually lift back to
the north across Hawaii. Models are fairly agreeable that this
would draw tropical moisture northward from the ITCZ for a wetter
pattern around Monday-Thursday, with moisture levels (precipitable
water anomalies) above the 90th percentile per the GFS/ECMWF and
their ensemble means. Models even have hints of a tropical low
tracking west of the state next week, but is strongest in the GFS
model, which tends to be aggressive with forming tropical systems.
Thus a rainier pattern is expected next week for Hawaii, with
perhaps a better focus in the western islands and also across the
Big Island, whereas some of the smaller islands near the Big
Island could be shadowed by the Big Island mountains in
southeasterly flow, per the Honolulu Forecast Office.

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