Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 AM EST Fri Dec 02 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Dec 03 2022 - 00Z Sat Dec 10 2022

...Closed low development just northwest of the state to increase
heavy rain potential next week...

Model and ensemble solutions generally agree that shower activity
should be relatively limited through the weekend under general
upper ridging. Expect near typical easterly trades will support
some windward/mountain focused showers. From Monday onward, models
and individual ensemble members are beginning to converge on a
more common solution, bolstering forecast confidence. There is a
growing signal to carve out a closed low/trough just to the
northwest of the islands early next week to lingers into mid-later
week. This would favor a surface front/trough just west of the
islands and a shift to southeasterly trade winds into Hawaii with
increasingly deep and sustained moisture inflow to fuel a period
favorable for some heavy downpours and possible local runoff
issues.

Schichtel