Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 AM EST Wed Dec 07 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Dec 08 2022 - 00Z Thu Dec 15 2022

Model and ensemble solutions reasonably agree with the pattern
evolution for the next week, bolstering forecast confidence. A
closed trough/low now to the northwest of the islands is losing
influence over the state as it ejects northwestward away from the
state. High pressure bridging/building to the northeast of the
state in the wake of closed low departure should support a return
of moderate to breezy easterly trades in a pattern with more
limited moisture and windward terrain focusing showers under an
amplifying upper ridge for much of the forecast period. There is a
guidance signal to monitor that shows separated/closed low energy
set to work southwestard to just southeast of the islands late
weekend into early-mid next week, but recent guidance seems to
hold deeper moisture associated with the feature offshore the Big
Island.
 
Schichtel