Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
218 AM EST Thu Dec 08 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Dec 09 2022 - 00Z Fri Dec 16 2022

Latest model and ensemble solutions still reasonably agree upon
the pattern evolution for the next week in a regime with seemingly
above average forecast predictability. Surface high pressure
settling to the northeast of the state should support moderate to
brisk mean island trades into next week in a pattern with modest
moisture for windward terrain/mountain focusing showers under
upper ridging. A closed low meanwhile set southeast of the state
may only nudge the ridge, with pooled moisture holding offshore
the Big Island. There is a growing signal to dig upper trough
energies and an associated series of surface fronts to the
northwest of the islands that by later next week may act to
disrupt/veer trades enough to allow deeper moisture return.
 
Schichtel