Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
231 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Dec 11 2022 - 00Z Sun Dec 18 2022

Latest model and ensemble solutions still reasonably agree upon
the pattern evolution through most of next week which features
surface high pressure settling to the north of the state
supporting moderate to brisk mean island trades into next week in
a pattern with modest moisture for windward terrain/mountain
focusing showers under upper ridging. A closed low meanwhile set
southeast of the state may slowly drift westward, especially more
so as it interacts with a deeper trough to the northwest. There is
a growing signal for this digging upper trough and frontal passage
over the islands later next week which should act to disrupt/veer
trades enough to also allow a deeper return of moisture into the
region. This looks to fuel at least widespread showers, with some
heavy rainfall potential, across the islands, although there is
still plenty of uncertainty on timing of this system and QPF
amounts.
 
Santorelli