Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 AM EST Tue Dec 13 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Dec 14 2022 - 00Z Wed Dec 21 2022

Moderate to breezy trade winds over Hawaii should weaken and veer
Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a digging upper trough which should
stay to the northwest of the state. This does look to bring a cold
front and some deeper moisture into the region with increased wet
weather across Hawaii later in the week. Models continue to show
consensus for another trough/upper low behind this one which
should get even closer to the state resulting in gusty westerly
winds and better heavy rainfall potential across the islands early
next week. There remains a lot of uncertainty still in the details
of this system with lots of implications for exact rainfall
amounts, though both the GFS and ECMWF show potential for at least
a couple inches of rain for some of the islands. Given the
uncertainties and late period timing, confidence is very low at
this point, but the potential is worth monitoring.
 
Santorelli