Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Dec 15 2022 - 00Z Thu Dec 22 2022

Trades should veer Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a digging upper
trough which should stay to the northwest of Hawaii but still
sweeping a cold front through the islands. Deeper moisture ahead
of this system increases wet weather chances later this week,
especially for norther islands. Model consensus is increasing for
another trough/upper low behind this one which should get even
closer to the state resulting in gusty westerly winds and better
heavy rainfall potential across the islands early next week. There
remains a lot of uncertainty still in the details of this system
with lots of implications for exact rainfall amounts, though both
the GFS and ECMWF show potential for at least a couple inches of
rain for some of the islands. Given the uncertainties and late
period timing, confidence is still pretty low at this point, but
the potential will need to continue to be monitored.
 
Santorelli