Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
219 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Dec 16 2022 - 00Z Fri Dec 23 2022

An upper low to the north of Hawaii will allow for a cold front to
approach the islands, pulling in deeper moisture and increasing
wet weather chances into this weekend. A blocky upper ridge in the
eastern Pacific will force this system northward, away from
Hawaii, as the next upper low/trough dives even closer to the
islands early next week. This should result in gusty westerly
winds and better heavy rainfall potential early to mid next week
along and ahead of a sweeping cold front. There remains a lot of
uncertainty and low confidence still in the details of this system
which affect timing and more precise rainfall amounts, though both
the GFS and ECMWF show potential for at least a couple inches of
rain for some of the islands. The cold front should move east of
Hawaii around Wednesday-Thursday next week with drier conditions
to follow.
 
Santorelli