Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Dec 18 2022 - 00Z Sun Dec 25 2022

The next upper low/trough over the central Pacific develops north
of the islands, near 35 degrees north, on Monday with a well
defined cold front passing through the state.  This is expected to
result in gusty southerly winds veering to the west and then
northwest, and increasing prospects for periods of heavy rainfall
for the early to middle part of next week along and ahead of the
front.  There still remains some uncertainty in the details of
this system which affect both timing and more precise rainfall
amounts, though both the GFS and ECMWF show the potential for 2 to
locally 5 inches of rain for some of the larger islands.  This low
pressure system then lifts northward by midweek, with a weak
surface high trying to build in across the Islands by the end of
the week.  The cold front should move east of Hawaii around
Wednesday-Thursday next week with drier conditions to follow, with
generally light southeasterly winds.
 
Hamrick