Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Dec 21 2022 - 00Z Wed Dec 28 2022

Improving weather conditions are on the horizon across Hawaii in
the wake of a strong Kona low and cold front.  The low will evolve
into an open trough and lift northward and away from the state
with a big ridge over the eastern Pacific blocking it from
tracking east.  Going into the end of the week, the ensemble means
are indicating another surface trough and cold front approaching
the northwestern Islands, but this is not expected to be nearly as
strong as the ongoing event.  The pattern north of the state
remains active going into the weekend with a second trough passing
by as a low pressure tries to get better organized.  Meanwhile, a
weak surface ridge axis will likely be in place across the state
with generally light and variable winds most days, with mainly a
southeasterly component to the flow.  The latest runs of the ECMWF
and GFS indicate that the majority of rainfall associated with
these future disturbances will likely remain well to the north,
with mainly sea breeze and terrain enhanced showers.
 
Hamrick