Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EST Wed Dec 28 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Dec 29 2022 - 00Z Thu Jan 05 2023

A west-east oriented ridge aloft continues to promote clement and
relatively dry conditions over Hawaii, which should last through
the rest of this week into early next week. This is also
reinforced by surface high pressure extending a ridge across the
state. In the short term the high to the northeast of Hawaii will
provide a somewhat increased pressure gradient for generally
moderate easterly trades, with cloudiness and any showers favoring
windward areas. But the ridge aloft should keep the atmosphere
stable and drier than normal, limiting shower coverage. By
Thursday, a front approaching and stalling to the north of Hawaii
should turn winds a bit southeasterly but weakening so that a
land/sea breeze pattern dominates. Then trades may restrengthen a
bit by the weekend into early next week, but perhaps only to
levels that promote a hybrid land/sea breezes and trades pattern.
The lack of deep moisture with the ridge aloft should keep
precipitation limited. Perhaps by around midweek next week a front
could reach closer to Hawaii, but even then model guidance does
not show much of an increase in rain chances at this point.

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