Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
215 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Dec 31 2022 - 00Z Sat Jan 07 2023

Model and ensemble solutions seem reasonably well clustered for
much of the next week, bolstering forecast confidence in a
preferred guidance composite to mitigate lingering small scale
differences. A west-east oriented ridge aloft continues to promote
mild and relatively dry conditions for Hawaii, which should last
into early next week. A front is set to stall to the north of the
state during this period that should allow winds to turn a bit
southeasterly in response, but be generally on the weak side so
that a land/sea breeze pattern dominates, albeit with limited
showers under the upper ridge. However by Tuesday, a cold front
looks to move across Hawaii. Model guidance does not show much of
an increase in rain chances associated with this front,
maintaining overall dry weather. But the front would at least
shift winds to have a northerly component and strengthen them as
the pressure gradient increases with a surface high behind the
front.

Schichtel