Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Jan 16 2023 - 00Z Mon Jan 23 2023

Today's guidance has held fairly steady for the gradual transition
toward a wetter pattern from initially dry conditions.  Through
the first half of the week, expect a lighter trend for easterly to
southeasterly trades as high pressure initially northeast of the
state weakens/departs to the east.  This should allow for more
land/sea breeze influence on showers.  The trade flow will bring
in enough moisture to raise precipitable water values to around
climatology, though rainfall totals will likely remain on the
light side with an upper ridge prevailing over the area into early
Tuesday.  After midweek the guidance consensus suggests the state
will be in the southeast periphery of a mean upper trough setting
up to the northwest.  As this upper trough develops, a leading
weak surface front may reach close to the northwestern islands
around Thursday-early Friday with at least some potential for
rainfall enhancement.  Expect this front to weaken/return
northward as a stronger front approaches during the weekend,
turning the winds more southerly.  This latter front will bring
the potential for a band of heavier rainfall.  As has generally
been the case for fronts in recent days, the 00Z GFS/GEFS mean
bring the weekend front a little farther east than other guidance.
 The GFS/GEFS show slightly lower heights aloft over the area
Friday-Saturday but end up closer to consensus by Sunday.  Overall
would recommend an intermediate timing based on the distribution
of guidance and typically lower predictability that far out in
time.

Rausch