Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Jan 23 2023 - 00Z Mon Jan 30 2023

The next front/trough is forecast to approach the central and
western Islands Monday night and into Tuesday.  This will produce
a well defined col in the subtropical ridge axis through the
middle of the week that may lead to a period of lighter and more
variable winds, followed by stronger northeasterly flow behind the
front going into the middle of the week, especially northwest of
the Big Island.  Showers and some thunderstorms may also increase
in coverage.

The GEFS and EC means are continuing to indicate the potential for
a closed upper low to form by the end of the week as the
amplifying trough associated with the cold front mentioned above
builds southward to around 30 degrees north.  The ECENS is closer
to the Islands compared to the more distant GEFS means solution
that is well to the northeast.  Depending on how this evolves and
its location, this could eventually produce impactful weather in
terms of increased rainfall and winds, but right now it appears
the majority of the rain associated with this will likely be north
of the state.

Hamrick