Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
236 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Jan 25 2023 - 00Z Wed Feb 1 2023

Hawaii will be within a general col in the subtropical ridge axis
for much of the upcoming week.  This will be in response to a
broad synoptic scale trough situated over the north-central
Pacific, and both the GEFS and ECENS are indicating a closed upper
low developing by late Wednesday north of the state around 35
degrees north.  This low will likely linger in place for a few
days before finally lifting north by Sunday. 

This will be close enough for a trailing surface front to affect
the state for the middle to end of the week, with scattered to
numerous showers and some thunderstorms, especially going into the
weekend when low level tropical moisture reaches the central and
eastern Islands.  Low level winds will likely increase across the
northwestern Islands by Thursday behind the frontal boundary in
northerly to northeast flow.  The winds will likely become
stronger by Friday and into the weekend as the pressure gradient
gets stronger with a surface high building in to the northwest.

Hamrick