Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
248 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Jan 26 2023 - 00Z Thu Feb 2 2023

Hawaii will be within a general col in the subtropical ridge axis
through the end of the week and into Saturday based on latest
model projections.  This will be in response to a broad synoptic
scale trough situated over the north-central Pacific, and the
models are indicating a closed upper low developing Wednesday
north of the state around 35 degrees north.  This low will likely
linger in place for a few days before finally lifting north by
Sunday. 

This will be close enough for a trailing surface front to affect
the state for the middle to end of the week, with scattered to
numerous showers and some thunderstorms, especially going into the
weekend with several inches of rainfall possible across the
northeast facing terrain.  Low level winds will likely increase
across the northwestern Islands by Thursday behind the frontal
boundary in northerly to northeast flow.  The winds will likely be
more variable across the Big Island with the front likely not
completely clearing that region.

Hamrick