Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
236 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Feb 01 2023 - 00Z Wed Feb 08 2023

A surface trough that has been focusing moisture across Hawaii
over the past few days is moving west of the state and
dissipating, leading to a diminishing heavy rain threat overall.
Aloft, a closed low remains in place west of Hawaii and looks to
erode slowly through this week. This feature will continue to draw
in somewhat above average moisture and maintain some instability
over the state. Thus with weak background winds at the surface,
this will lead to a general sea breeze pattern with showers and
perhaps thunderstorms particularly over the Big Island over the
next few days. Some localized heavy downpours are possible. Then
by late week, the surface pattern looks favorable for more typical
easterly winds to form by later in the week with a high to the
north. Additionally, a cold front or two may approach Hawaii and
help focus moisture, but with some uncertainty in timing and with
how far the fronts sink south. Overall a wet trade wind pattern
looks to be in store for late week into early next week.

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