Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
226 AM EST Fri Feb 03 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Feb 04 2023 - 00Z Sat Feb 11 2023

Models and ensembles generally agree that upper troughing passing
slowly over the state through the weekend along with
lingering/pooled moisture underneath may fuel some locally heavy
downpours across Hawaii in a pattern in proximity to a weakening
front and with the return of moderate trades as supporting high
pressure bridges to the north of the state. Upper ridging set to
then gradually build over the state early/mid next week should
usher in a more stable pattern with typical trade flow and modest
passing showers favoring windward terrain. A model and ensemble
composite seems to provide a reasonable forecast basis for this
period. Forecast spread grows later next week with depiction of
mid-latitude flow amplitude to the north of the state that if
manifested could bring another weakening front toward the islands
as uncertain height falls work southeastward into the upper ridge,
but this signal is relatively weak.

Schichtel