Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
224 AM EST Sat Feb 04 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 05 2023 - 00Z Sun Feb 12 2023

Guidance still generally agrees that upper trough/closed low slow
passage over the state this weekend along with lingering/pooled
moisture underneath may fuel some locally heavy downpours across
Hawaii in a pattern in proximity to a weakening front and with the
return of moderate trades as supporting high pressure bridges to
the north of the state. Upper ridging set to then gradually build
over the state through at least next midweek should usher in a
more stable pattern with typical trade flow and modest passing
showers favoring windward terrain. A model and ensemble composite
seems to provide a reasonable forecast basis for this period.
Forecast spread grows some mid-later next week with amplified
mid-latitude upper trough and surface system passage to the north
of the state that could bring another weakening trailing front
toward the islands. In the wake of main system passage, trades may
increase to moderate to brisk levels as a new high pressure cell
bridges to the north of the state.

Schichtel