Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 AM EST Sun Feb 05 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Feb 06 2023 - 00Z Mon Feb 13 2023

Models and ensembles still reasonably agree in showing that upper
trough/closed low slow passage over the state today along with
lingering/pooled moisture underneath may fuel some locally heavy
downpours across Hawaii in a pattern in proximity to a weakening
front and with the return of moderate trades as supporting high
pressure bridges to the north of the state. Upper ridging set to
then gradually build over the state this week should usher in a
more stable pattern with typical trade flow and modest passing
showers favoring windward terrain. A model and ensemble composite
seems to provide a reasonable forecast basis. Forecast spread does
grow some mid-later week as amplified mid-latitude upper trough
and surface system passage well to the north of the state could
bring another weakening/stalling trailing front toward the
islands. Island trades may increase to moderate to brisk levels
and linger into next weekend as a post-frontal high pressure
bridges to the north then northeast of the state. The bulk of
upper troughing and deepest moisture seems to remain just to the
south of the state, but renewed trades should be able to tap
enough for periodic showers over favored windward terrain.

Schichtel