Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
218 AM EST Mon Feb 06 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 07 2023 - 00Z Tue Feb 14 2023

Upper ridging set to gradually build over the state should usher
in a more stable pattern with typical trade flow and modest
passing showers favoring windward terrain. A model and ensemble
composite still seems to provide a reasonable forecast basis.
Amplified mid-latitude upper trough and surface system passage
well to the north of the state could bring another
weakening/stalling trailing front toward the islands into mid-late
week. Island trades may increase to moderate to brisk levels and
linger through next weekend as a post-frontal high pressure
bridges to the north then northeast of the state. In this pattern,
the bulk of upper troughing and deepest moisture seems to remain
just to the south of the state, but renewed trades should be able
to tap enough for periodic showers over favored windward terrain.
The Big Island seemingly has the best potential for some heavier
downpours later weekend into next week with deepest moisture tap
potential.

Schichtel