Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Feb 20 2023 - 00Z Mon Feb 27 2023

...Long term wet pattern to remain in place next week with
occasional chances for heavier rainfall...

Both the deterministic model guidance and ensemble means remain
consistent in depicting a trough/upper low to form from shortwave
energy to the northwest which will slowly shift southward through
next Friday, following a similar evolution to the previous week.
The placement of this upper low combined with the persistent upper
ridge to the northeast will maintain southeasterly flow and a
southeast-northwest oriented axis of enhanced moisture in the
region.  However, in contrast to the prior week, this axis of
enhanced moisture will likely remain just to the southwest of the
islands. Overall, heavy rain chances will be lower, but enough
moisture will still be present in the near vicinity to continue a
periodic rainfall threat over some locations (especially the
western islands and the Big Island). The upper low should shear
out by the weekend, ushering in a drier pattern as the influx of
higher moisture into the region ends.

Putnam