Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 21 2023 - 00Z Tue Feb 28 2023

...Long term wet pattern to remain in place next week with
occasional chances for heavier rainfall...

The latest global guidance and the ensemble means continue to show
an upper level trough/low to form from shortwave energy to the
northwest of the islands then slowly shift southward through next
Friday, following a similar evolution to the previous week. These
pattern will favor keeping much of the state wet over the next
week. The placement of this upper low combined with the persistent
upper ridge to the northeast will maintain southeasterly flow and
a southeast-northwest oriented axis of enhanced moisture in the
region.  However, in contrast to the prior week, this axis of
enhanced moisture will likely remain just to the southwest of the
islands. Chances are lower for there to be periods of heavy
rainfall however there will continue to be a periodic rainfall
threat over some locations (especially the western islands and the
Big Island). Models depict the upper low to begin to shear by the
weekend which will help transition back toward a drier airmass.

Campbell