Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
215 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 26 2023 - 00Z Sun Mar 5 2023

A big subtropical high will be building north of the state, and
settling southward to generally near 35-40 degrees north, through
the middle of next week.  There is good agreement among the
ensemble means for this through Wednesday.  This will maintain
breezy to windy trades from generally the east-northeast through
most of the forecast period, with winds gusting over 35 mph at
times, along with very rough surf.  A col is likely to develop in
the ridge by Friday over the far northwestern Islands, and this
slowly works its way to the east.

The presence of a weak upper trough and PWs on the order of 1.0 to
1.5 inches with sustained orographic lift will maintain the
potential for moderate to heavy showers across the windward
terrain, particularly across the Big Island.  There may be an
increase in rainfall intensity by the end of the week and heading
into the weekend as a potential upper low approaches the Big
Island from the east.

Hamrick