Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Feb 27 2023 - 00Z Mon Mar 6 2023

A big subtropical high will be building north of the state, and
settling southward to generally near 35-40 degrees north, through
the middle of next week.  There is good agreement among the
ensemble means for this through Thursday.  This will maintain
breezy to windy trades from generally the east-northeast through
most of the forecast period, with winds gusting over 35 mph at
times, along with very rough surf.  A col is likely to develop in
the ridge by Thursday over the far northwestern Islands, and this
slowly works its way to the east going into next weekend.

The presence of a weak upper trough and PWs on the order of 1.0 to
1.3 inches with sustained orographic lift will maintain the
potential for moderate to heavy showers across the windward
terrain, particularly across the Big Island.  There will likely be
an increase in rainfall intensity by the end of the week and
heading into the weekend as a potential upper low slowly
approaches the Big Island from the east.  Several inches of
rainfall is possible for the Thursday-Friday time period here.

Hamrick