Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 28 2023 - 00Z Tue Mar 7 2023

A big subtropical high, both at the surface and aloft, will remain
anchored in place north of the state, with the center of the high
near 35-40 degrees north through Thursday.  The strong pressure
gradient in place will maintain windy conditions with flow from
generally the east-northeast through the end of the week, with
winds gusting over 35 mph at times, along with very rough surf. 
Some abatement in the winds is likely going into the weekend as an
inverted trough and potential surface low forms east of the state.


The presence of an upper trough and potential closed low near 150
degrees west, along with sustained orographic lift, will maintain
the potential for moderate to heavy showers across the windward
terrain, particularly across the Big Island.  There will likely be
an increase in rainfall intensity by the end of the week, with
several inches of rainfall possible for the Thursday-Friday time
period here.  This may be enough to cause some flooding concerns
for flood-prone areas.  Improving conditions are likely going into
Sunday and next Monday.

Hamrick