Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 AM EST Sat Mar 04 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Mar 05 2023 - 00Z Sun Mar 12 2023

On Saturday, the upper low atop the state is forecast to open up
quickly weaken, while at the surface the pressure gradient will
quickly weaken too as low pressure is forecast to push eastward
across the Pacific and displace the surface high. This will lead
to winds dying down for a land and sea breeze pattern over the
weekend. While fewer showers are expected overall, showers that do
form in the land/sea breeze environment could contain heavy
downpours given the moist airmass remaining in place, especially
Saturday. Then by around Monday-Wednesday, troughing aloft across
the Pacific will help push cold fronts across Hawaii, serving to
focus moisture along and ahead of the fronts for showers and
possible storms. Two distinct but close together fronts appear
likely to cross the islands, the first perhaps accompanied by more
moisture and the second producing more breezy westerly winds
behind it. A drying trend looks likely behind the fronts by around
Thursday-Friday of next week, with some trend upward in the
environmental moisture possible by next weekend.

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