Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 AM EST Sun Mar 05 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Mar 06 2023 - 00Z Mon Mar 13 2023

A weak pressure gradient at the surface given low pressure to the
north and northwest of the Hawaii will lead to a daytime sea
breeze/nighttime land breeze pattern over the islands given lack
of trade winds. Showers could develop inland where sea breezes
converge as a moist airmass remains in place. Then on Monday, a
first cold front is forecast to push across the state, serving to
focus moisture along and ahead of the fronts for showers and
possible storms in southwesterly flow. This moisture band may
stall around Maui, but another cold front is expected to follow
close behind the first around Tuesday-Wednesday. An upper low is
forecast to track just north of Hawaii and push the fronts east,
leading to breezy to windy conditions and clearing out the
moisture for a drying trend by around Thursday-Friday. Some model
guidance (mainly the ECMWF suite) indicates some moisture return
by next weekend, but the GEFS/GFS generally keep the state drier,
so this will continue to be monitored.

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