Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
247 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Mar 11 2023 - 00Z Sat Mar 18 2023

Prefer a composite of reasonably well clustered model and ensemble
guidance. This composite still indicates that a post-frontal drier
airmass should yield few showers heading into the weekend. Lower
dewpoints will additionally be in place, which will also allow
minimum temperatures to fall below normal. Winds should continue
to decrease today and remain on the weaker side through the
weekend and early next week given a weak pressure gradient at the
surface. A land/sea breeze pattern may set up over the weekend,
with some interior showers as moisture levels gradually return
closer to normal.

By Monday and beyond, a frontal drape and energetic embedded
impulse/system track looks to set up just north of Hawaii
downstream of an amplified but positive tilt west-central Pacific
upper trough to settle into the split southern stream flow.
Frontal proximity may draw some southerly winds and more moisture
into the state. There is uncertainty in the location of the front
and its wavy meandering. But by around midweek it appears possible
it could sink south enough to focus moisture at least some across
the western islands for a wetter pattern, so this will continue to
be monitored.

Schichtel