Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Mar 12 2023 - 00Z Sun Mar 19 2023

A composite of reasonably well clustered model and ensemble
guidance remains preferred and maintains good continuity through
much of the next week. Winds should remain on the weaker side
through Monday given a weak pressure gradient at the surface, but
should gradually increase over this period. A land/sea breeze
pattern may initially focus some interior showers as moisture
levels slowly return closer to normal. A frontal drape and
energetic embedded impulse/system track still looks to set up just
north of Hawaii next week downstream of an amplified but positive
tilt west-central Pacific upper trough in split southern stream
flow. Frontal proximity may draw some southerly winds and deeper
moisture into the state, but there remains uncertainty with the
wavy front meandering. Expect the front may temporarily sink south
enough to focus pooled moisture at least across the western
islands for a wetter pattern, especially Tuesday into
Wednesday/Thursday in the wake of organized/deepened frontal low
passage just to the north of the state.

Schichtel