Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Mar 14 2023 - 00Z Tue Mar 21 2023

A favored composite of well clustered model and ensemble guidance
maintains good forecast continuity over the next week. A wavy
front and energetic embedded impulse/system track is expected to
perist just north of Hawaii this week, downstream of an amplified
but positive tilt west-central Pacific upper trough set in split
southern stream flow. Frontal proximity may draw some southerly
winds and deeper moisture into the state. Expect the front may
temporarily sink south enough to focus pooled moisture at least
across the western islands for a wetter pattern, especially
Tuesday into Wednesday/Thursday in the wake of organizing frontal
low passage slated just to the north of the state. The expected
slow eastward translation of the west-central Pacific upper trough
may act to eventually force a trailing cold front and deeply
pooled moisture/rainfall toward the islands in about a week. 

Schichtel