Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 AM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Mar 17 2023 - 00Z Fri Mar 24 2023

An energetic system track with focus just to the north of Hawaii
lies downstream of an amplified/positive tilt west central Pacific
upper trough. Frontal proximity has drawn deeper moisture into the
state, especially as per an axis of deep tropical sourced moisture
into the western islands that has been fueling some enhanced
showers and thunderstorms. TPW satellite loops show quite an
anomalously deep and channeled band of moisture. The front and
main rain focus should continue to retreat slowly northward over
the next few days with upper ridge building/increasing heights
over the state in a dry pattern. The eastward translation of the
west-central Pacific upper trough and possible closed low
development to the west of the state next week may then favor a
wetter period for at least the western islands with the expected
forcing of a lead front and deeply pooled moisture/rainfall back
toward the state. A composite of well clustered model and ensemble
guidance still seems to provide a good forecast basis as described
in a pattern with reasonably good predictability.

Schichtel