Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 352 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023 Valid 00Z Thu Mar 23 2023 - 00Z Thu Mar 30 2023 Guidance is showing a pattern favoring central Pacific upper lows that will lead to periods of somewhat enhanced showers with southeasterly background flow, and more typical trades and windward focused rainfall in between. Consensus depicts the leading upper low northwest of the islands passing by to the north mid-late week, helping to push a surface trough and moisture axis into the western-central islands. This moisture should lead to higher rainfall totals mainly during Wednesday-Thursday, though models still differ a bit on rainfall totals. The southeasterly background flow may be light enough to allow for sea/land breeze influence on showers over some areas. Then departure of the upper low will promote a return of typical trade flow starting by Friday or Saturday and continuing into early next week. During this time frame, another upper low northwest of the state should stay just far enough away not to have too much influence on the pattern over the main islands. However from Monday onward upstream energy will displace that low and ultimately lead to a more amplified upper trough with yet another embedded low. Most guidance says that this upper trough will reach close enough to support a lighter and southeasterly trend for winds after early Monday, and push a surface trough toward or into the western islands by the middle of next week along with some increase of moisture/rainfall. Models/means display typical spread for forecasts 6-7 days out in time, or even slightly better than average relative to what might be expected for the pattern. Thus an average of latest guidance would be a reasonable starting point for that part of the forecast. Rausch