Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Mar 29 2023 - 00Z Wed Apr 5 2023

The weather pattern is forecast to be rather unsettled across the
northwestern Islands for much of this week as a large closed low
aloft near 30N/170W will result in an occluded surface low with a
trailing stationary front that will slowly meander over this
general area through about Saturday, before finally lifting
northward and away from the region.  Both the GEFS mean and the
ECENS are in good overall agreement on this scenario.  Multiple
rounds of heavy rainfall are likely for much of next week for the
Island of Kauai and points westward, and more scattered showers
for the remainder of the state.  However, any eastward trend could
put more of the populated Islands under the threat for heavier
rainfall.  With the col in the subtropical ridge centered near 165
degrees west, this will put the main Islands on the southwestern
edge of the surface high that will provide mainly ESE to SE trades
for much of the upcoming week, with the strongest low level flow
over the Big Island.

Hamrick