Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Mar 31 2023 - 00Z Fri Apr 7 2023

A large upper low associated with an intensifying surface low near
30N/170W Wednesday is forecast to slowly meander in place through
the end of the week since it will be cut off from the westerlies,
and then slowly lift north this weekend and finally away from the
northwestern Islands.  The GEFS mean is similar to the ECENS in
timing and placement.  The central and eastern Islands will
continue to be on the southwestern periphery of the subtropical
high through most of the forecast period, and as the low lifts
north well away from the state, the high then builds back westward
centered near 35 degrees north, with the GEFS mean indicating a
stronger ridge axis.

It appears the majority of the showers and thunderstorms
associated with the trailing stationary front should remain from
Kauai Island and points west, and mainly terrain enhanced showers
with ESE to SE flow across most of the populated Islands east of
Kauai.  The trades should then become more easterly going into
early next week as the ridge axis builds in to the north, and
there will likely be in increase in showers over most of the
Islands as a weak upper trough passes through the region early
next week.

Hamrick