Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Apr 01 2023 - 00Z Sat Apr 08 2023

A large closed upper low associated with an intensifying surface
low near 30N/170W has recently proven slow to move, cutoff from
the westerlies. However, expect the system will slowly lift north
into this weekend and finally away from the northwestern Islands.
The majority of the showers and thunderstorms associated with the
trailing stationary front may linger over the western islands
within a plume of deeper moisture. The central and eastern Islands
will continue to be on the southwestern periphery of the
subtropical high through most of the forecast period, and as the
low lifts north well away from the state, the high then builds
back westward centered near 35 degrees north. Accordingly, trades
should then become more easterly going into early next week as the
ridge axis builds in to the north, and there will likely be in
increase in showers over most of the Islands as a weak upper
trough works into and lingers over the region next week that may
act to pool moisture and instability. Prefer a composite of
reasonably well clustered model guidance for a pattern that seems
to have good ensemble support.

Schichtel