Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 AM EDT Sat Apr 01 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Apr 02 2023 - 00Z Sun Apr 09 2023

The closed upper low associated with an deep surface low off to
the northwest of Hawaii has finally begun to slowly lift north and
away from the northwestern Islands. The majority of the showers
and thunderstorms associated with a trailing front may linger into
the weekend over the western islands within a plume of deeper
moisture. The central and eastern Islands will continue to be on
the southwestern periphery of the subtropical high through most of
the forecast period, and as the low lifts north well away from the
state, the high then builds back westward centered near 35 degrees
north. Accordingly, trades should then become more easterly going
into early next week as the ridge axis builds in to the north, and
there will likely be in increase in showers over most of the
Islands as a weak upper trough works into and lingers over the
region next week that may act to pool moisture and instability.
Prefer a composite of reasonably well clustered model guidance for
a pattern that seems to have good ensemble support.

Schichtel