Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 AM EDT Sun Apr 02 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Apr 03 2023 - 00Z Mon Apr 10 2023

Models and ensembles reasonably agree that high pressure now
centered to the northwest of the islands will bridge back to the
north of the state to support development of moderate to breezy
trades over the state through midweek as upper troughing settles
over the state. While showers should linger in the short term over
the western islands within a plume of deeper moisture, the pattern
transition will tend to focus showers/downpours over favored
windward terrain. Trade supporting ridging to the north of the
state should weaken later week with the passage of a mid-latitude
system. A favored composite of reasonably well clustered model and
ensemble guidance through the rest of the week indicates that
significant upper trough amplification over the mid-upper
latitudes of the central Pacific will eventually force a
shower/thunderstorm focusing cold front toward the state in about
a week whose lead flow response may support return tropical
moisture flow up into the state in a building scenario into early
next week.

Schichtel