Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 AM EDT Mon Apr 03 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Apr 04 2023 - 00Z Tue Apr 11 2023

Latest guidance reasonably agrees that high pressure centered to
the northwest of the islands will bridge back to the north of the
state to support development of moderate to breezy trades over the
state through mid-late week as upper troughing settles over the
state. While some showers should linger in the short term over the
western islands within a plume of deeper moisture, the pattern
transition will tend to focus showers/downpours over favored
windward terrain statewide. Trade supporting ridging to the north
of the state should weaken this weekend. A favored composite of
reasonably well clustered model and ensemble guidance indicates
that significant upper trough amplification over the mid-upper
latitudes of the central Pacific would then force a
shower/thunderstorm focusing cold front toward the state whose
lead flow response may support return tropical moisture flow up
into the state to better fuel showers into early next week,
possibly followed by an uptick of trades.

Schichtel