Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Apr 26 2023 - 00Z Wed May 03 2023

A favored composite of well clustered model guidance has broad
ensemble support overall in a pattern with average to above
average predictability. Slow passage of an amplified mid-latitude
system to the north of the state is disrupting island trades and
working a trailing front along with increasing chances for
enhanced rains over the islands. The weakening and stalling
boundary and land/sea boundaries should act to pool deeper
moisture to fuel some daily local downpours this week. This
pattern should slowly lose influence over the weekend and usher in
a return period of moderate trades as high pressure bridges to the
north of the state. There is a growing guidance signal that
subsequent southeastward digging of upper trough energy from the
west-central Pacific mid-latitudes early next week may again
disrupt island trades as an associated and shower/thunderstorm
focusing front slowly nears the state.

Schichtel